Writing

The near-term rate path is close to a coin toss, but the long-term fiscal trajectory is high-conviction. Rising debt, an unfavorable r-g dynamic, and a blocked spending/revenue picture point to an inflationary resolution that structurally widens the 30yr term premium. Express via a DV01-neutral 5s30s steepener.

A long thesis on ServiceNow at $91, with a base-case target of $152. The market is mispricing the company's AI monetization pivot and undervaluing its structural position in the emerging enterprise orchestration layer.